IntenCheck Blog

IntenCheck Blog

Super Tuesday!

Right after triumphant Oscar ceremony finally came one of the main event of the election campaign in the United States. Tomorrow Primaries will be held in 12 states, the islands of Samoa, along with the beginning of Democrats’ voting from abroad, which will last until March,8.

At stake – 1675 candidates: Republicans voting for 641 candidates, the Democrats for 1034. Therefore the name of the day of Super Tuesday.

For each state, we have collected 40 Twitter accounts of the most popular in each State media – newspapers, magazines, radio, TV. Then simply calculated the number of times they mentioned one or another candidate for the last two weeks. The rating of the candidates has been developed based on the frequency of such referrals.

This method has been proven effective during the elections of the leader for the Labor Party in Great Britain and the presidential election in Argentina. Now, we test it on the US campaign.

Previously we have given diagrams indicating the frequency of candidate’s references. This time because of big number of states, we just give a summary table, which lists the campaign’s leaders according to our ratings.

 

Republican party
1-st 2-nd 3-rd
Alabama Trump Rubio Cruz
Alaska cocuses Trump Cruz/Rubio Cruz/Rubio
Arkansas Trump Rubio Cruz
Georgia Trump Cruz/Rubio Rubio/Cruz
Massachusetts Trump Cruz/Rubio Cruz/Rubio
Minnesota Trump Rubio Cruz
Oklahoma Trump Rubio Cruz
Tennessee Trump Rubio Cruz
Texas Trump Cruz Rubio
Vermont Trump Rubio Cruz/Kasich
Virginia Trump Rubio Cruz
Democratic party
1-st 2-nd
Alabama Clinton Sanders
Arkansas Clinton Sanders
Colorado cocuses Clinton Sanders
Georgia Clinton Sanders
Massachusetts Clinton Sanders
Minnesota Clinton Sanders
Oklahoma Sanders/Clinton Clinton/Sanders
Tennessee Clinton Sanders
Texas Clinton Sanders
Vermont Sanders Clinton
Virginia Clinton Sanders

Now we have to wait for Wednesday morning to find out the accuracy of our forecast.

 

Last Day of Winter 2016